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A 43-year-old male presents to the ED. He has had several episodes of upper abdominal pain over the last 2 months, usually lasting no longer than a few hours.
He received his abdominal ultrasound results today from his GP: he has gall stones. He had a similar episode of pain tonight, lasting 3 hours, but is now pain free.
How likely is he to develop acute pancreatitis at some point during his life?